ALSA 2025 meeting

Over the past two decades, Japan’s legal profession has experienced significant growth in lawyer numbers, yet this growth has been concentrated in metropolitan areas such as Tokyo and Osaka. In contrast, many regional bar associations have seen a sharp decline in new lawyer registrations, with 13 associations averaging fewer than two new members annually in recent years. Simultaneously, Japan is facing a dramatic demographic shift: by 2045, its population will have declined by over 20%, with more than 35% aged 65 or older, and a significant increase in elderly living alone—especially in rural areas.
This paper analyzes how such demographic and geographic imbalances will affect legal service availability across Japan by 2045. Based on population forecasts by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research and lawyer population simulations by the Japan Federation of Bar Associations, I propose three scenarios for regional lawyer distribution. Even under the most optimistic model, certain prefectures will face dire shortages, with each lawyer theoretically responsible for over 7,000 residents—many of whom are elderly and legally vulnerable.
Contrary to the assumption that population decline reduces legal demand, I argue that legal needs will diversify and intensify, especially in elder law, estate planning, preventive legal services, and public law issues involving municipalities. To address these challenges, this paper advocates for a multi-layered strategy involving the deployment of public-sector lawyers (e.g., Japan Legal Support Center’s staff attorneys), stronger coordination with local welfare networks, legal technology platforms, and rational restructuring of regional bar associations.
The paper underscores the urgent need to shift from an individual responsibility model to an institutional one, ensuring that legal professionals remain a central component of Japan’s social infrastructure in an era of demographic transformation.