Navigating the Vanguard: A Practical Guide to Selecting Geospatial Foundation Models
The recent explosion of Earth Observation Foundation Models (EO-FMs), such as AlphaEarth, TerraMind, TESSERA, and Copernicus-FM, has introduced unprecedented capabilities in GeoAI. However, their adoption presents considerable challenges, including high computational demands, diverse multimodal data requirements, and substantial obstacles to model interpretation.
To address this "model fatigue," this talk offers a practical guide to facilitate transparent and efficient model selection for data practitioners. We will survey the current landscape of GeoAI models, demonstrate methods for evaluating predictive performance using accessible open-source tools, and present alternative architectures that enable scalable (parallel) processing on standard cloud GPUs, eliminating the need for high-performance computing clusters to test model accuracy on smaller data domains and feature combinations. FMs are often presented as the single truth, but findings from combining feature sets from multiple EO-FMs at the prediction level suggest that ensemble approaches outperform any single model.
Finally, we will address essential semantic and temporal considerations to ensure attendees understand the hidden uncertainties in their geospatial embeddings before making operational decisions, and why the responsible use of AI-derived data requires that automated outputs never be treated as ground truth. Foundation Models are designed for specific purposes, and despite being termed "Foundation Models," there is no single model that fits all use cases — project domains are often highly specific, and closing that gap may require targeted model modification to generate custom embeddings that address what standard models miss.
Objective & Central Thesis:
The geospatial domain is witnessing the emergence of multi-modal, general-purpose foundation models. The central thesis of this talk is that effective navigation of this landscape necessitates a structured approach to model selection and evaluation, rather than reliance on opaque methodologies. The intent of this talk is therefore to simplify model selection while emphasising scalable computation and practical uncertainty awareness.
Talk Outline (30 Minutes Total):
- Minutes 0–5: The GeoAI Vanguard: Mapping the landscape of models (e.g., AlphaEarth, TerraMind, AnySat) and the reality of "model fatigue."
- Minutes 5–15: Scalable Architecture: Walking through different architectures and modelling strategies to capture domain-specific elements, including initial findings from combining feature sets across multiple EO-FMs — and why the possibilities for ensemble approaches are only beginning to be explored.
- Minutes 15–20: Evaluating Predictive Power: Demonstrating how to evaluate model accuracy for local use cases using accessible tools like Random Forest.
- Minutes 20–25: The Semantic & Temporal Cautions: Unpacking the hidden uncertainties in AI-derived geospatial data, and why treating them as direct observations is dangerous.
- Minutes 25–30: Q&A: Dedicated time for audience questions.
Gijs van den Dool is a Senior Geospatial Data Scientist and Earth Observation specialist working independently with startups and early-stage ventures. With extensive experience in insurance, environmental consulting, and climate risk, he brings a proven ability to translate complex spatial data into actionable intelligence to support smarter decisions.
His work focuses on applying machine learning and satellite data to translate Earth Observation into data insights for policy, risk management, and decision-making, with a strong emphasis on making emerging technologies accessible to user communities.
His current projects include using Earth Observation Foundation models to feed digital twin–enabled decision-support systems for urban heat island mitigation, designed to assist planners and policymakers. In parallel, his research interest lies in modelling wildfire risk at the wildland–urban interface, where climate impacts intersect with urban growth and infrastructure exposure.