Dynamics of diversification, digitalisation and diffusion in global drug markets are explored as outcomes of exogenous shock to the UN system of international drug control and criminalisation-based responses. The paper considers COVID 19 lockdown in 2020 as a severe external shock. Like the collapse of Soviet communism (1990s) and technological innovation (2000s) this accelerates current market trends and the decomposition of the international control regime.

The objectives are to:
Identify how lockdown impacted supply, distribution networks and demand trends at global, regional and national levels.
Determine if market dynamics during this period are sustained in the post lockdown era.
Understand how national drug policy responses shaped perceptions of the post COVID drug policy ‘problem’ and national policy debates.

The paper adopts a path dependency lens to explore ‘critical junctures’ for drug control, a mixed-methods case study approach combining stakeholder interviews, literature review and document analysis from Global North and South countries (N=10) and uses coca / cocaine to trace shifts in the political economy of illicit drug markets.

Results:
Lockdown telescoped synthetic drug market growth, displacement of plant-based drugs, digitalisation, crime group fragmentation and import substitute industrialisation (ISI) in cannabis markets.
Harm reduction interventions were inadequate, best practice initiatives were not maintained and they fuelled a populist backlash.

Implications
National authorities are slow to engage with accelerated drug market change, with implications for enforcement capacities and elevating risks of drug related harm, violence and injustice.
Recurrent shocks continue to reveal major limitations in international drug control governance, institutions and processes.