Background. Estimating the size of drug markets is critical for informing policy and conducting evaluation. In Mexico, the absence of a probabilistic drug use survey since 2016 has hindered comprehensive demand-side analyses, leaving law enforcement metrics—such as eradication and seizures—as the sole data sources.

Data and Methods. To address this gap, we employ an innovative methodology that combines probability and convenience samples to calculate a set of adjusted weights. We do this by estimating disjoint propensity score-based weights derived from variables such as geographic regions, gender, age, and education. Specifically, we use data from the 2016 National Survey on Drug, Alcohol, and Tobacco Use (ENCODAT), a probabilistic household survey representative at national and state levels, and a 2023 convenience survey, which provides detailed insights into cannabis use, expenditures, and pricing.

Preliminary results. Our findings estimate that the 2023 Mexican cannabis market totaled approximately 600.5 metric tons with a market value of 13 billion Mexican pesos. The average price per ounce was 686 Mexican pesos (SD = 78.4), with a median of 600 Mexican pesos. Lastly, the total users’ yearly expenditure on cannabis was 9.1 billion Mexican pesos. This study demonstrates the value of combining diverse data sources to overcome limitations in drug market estimation and offers critical insights for policymaking in Mexico's evolving drug policy landscape.