Overdose mortality has become a generation-defining public health crisis in Canada but there is a lack of meaningful action to address it. We therefore need to create an evidence-based roadmap to end the overdose epidemic in Canada.
This roadmap has three key components. First, we will generate estimates of the key populations at risk of overdose (youth, tradespeople, rural populations, Indigenous communities, and people living with socioeconomic marginalization in urban centres), as well as effect sizes for interventions and policies (expressed as population preventable fractions and population attributable risks). Second, we will employ these estimates to develop simulation models describing how different policy, programmatic, and clinical intervention scale-up scenarios will decelerate, reverse, or accelerate the overdose mortality epidemic across key populations. Third, we will develop and deliver a roadmap to end Canada’s overdose epidemic to policymakers, multisectoral stakeholders, affected communities, people who use drugs, and the general public. This will link different scenarios to specific policy levers and their likely outcomes, along with measures of uncertainty, thereby providing clarity regarding what is possible, what is most likely, and how long it will take.
Canada is a leader in policy and programmatic innovation on substance use. Without a coherent national strategy to end the overdose epidemic, however, this innovation will fail to yield real gains in terms of lives saved.
Mohammad Karamouzian is an infectious disease epidemiologist. A former veterinarian (DVM) turned public health researcher, he holds a PhD in Population and Public Health (2021) from the University of British Columbia where he had the Vanier and Pierre Elliott Trudeau Foundation doctoral scholarships. Before joining the Centre on Drug Policy Evaluation, he was a Banting postdoctoral fellow at Brown School of Public Health. He is also affiliated with the BC Centre on Substance Use (BCCSU) and the WHO Collaborating Centre for HIV Surveillance (HIVHUB) in the Middle East and North Africa. Mohammad’s research focuses on addressing health inequities faced by marginalized populations, such as female sex workers, people who inject drugs, and people who are incarcerated. He is committed to translating his research into policies that will improve the health of marginalized populations.
Dan Werb, PhD, is an epidemiologist and policy analyst with expertise in overdose, drug policy, and the continuum of care for people who use drugs. He is Director of the Centre on Drug Policy Evaluation at St. Michael's Hospital in Toronto, which conducts high-impact implementation science and observational research to improve the measurement and execution of policies and interventions to respond to substance-related harms. Dr. Werb is also an Associate Professor with dual appointments at the Institute of Health Policy, Management & Evaluation at the University of Toronto and in the Division of Infectious Diseases & Global Public Health at the University of California San Diego.