2025-04-25 –, Helium3
Collusion is a complex phenomenon in which companies secretly collaborate to engage in fraudulent practices. This talk presents an innovative methodology for detecting and predicting collusion patterns in different national markets using neural networks (NNs) and graph neural networks (GNNs). GNNs are particularly well suited to this task because they can exploit the inherent network structures present in collusion and many other economic problems. In Python, we use PyTorch and the Deep Graph Library (DGL) to develop and train models on individual market datasets from Japan, the United States, two regions in Switzerland, Italy, and Brazil, focusing on predicting collusion in single markets. In our empirical study, we show that GNNs outperform NNs in detecting complex collusive patterns. This research contributes to the ongoing discourse on preventing collusion and optimizing detection methodologies, providing valuable guidance on the use of NNs and GNNs in economic applications to enhance market fairness and economic welfare.
Collusion detection is a critical process for identifying instances in which entities, such as companies or individuals, secretly collaborate to engage in fraudulent practices, often characterized by agreements on prices, market shares, or tactics to avoid competition. GNNs explicitly allow the incorporation of network structures, which are prevalent in collusion and key to improving the detection rate. This talk tackles the challenge of detecting fraud patterns using GNNs and highlights how these models can effectively learn network structures inherent in bidding markets.
We propose a fraud detection algorithm that uses relational graph convolutional networks (R-GCNs) to analyze the inherent network structures in bidding data. R-GCNs have the ability to assign different weights to different types of edges. By using this extension of GNNs, different types of relationships between the bids can be combined to generate richer node embeddings, making them more effective at detecting collusive behavior among companies participating in bids and tenders. We develop and train these models using the PyTorch framework and the Deep Graph Library (DGL), applying them to datasets from Japan, the United States, Switzerland, Italy, and Brazil. Our empirical findings show that GNNs outperform traditional NNs in identifying complex collusive patterns, offering a new solution to this fraud problem.
For data scientists, especially those working with network data, the detection of anomalous patterns in network structures is a critical challenge across different domains, e.g. financial fraud detection or social network analysis. Attendees will gain practical strategies for applying GNNs to classification tasks to detect patterns in network data and a deeper understanding of how graph embeddings can enhance fraud detection models.
Novice
Expected audience expertise: Python:Novice
I am a researcher and PhD candidate in Data Science and Economics at the Heinrich-Heine University Düsseldorf. My current research focuses on the application of machine learning and deep learning methods to economic problems.