Simulation Modelling of the COVID-19 Situation following the Different Policies Scenario in Phuket
COVID-19 has severely impacted human life in the context of health, society, and economics. Governments in various countries tried to adopt different measures to decrease transmission. Thailand where faced multiple lockdowns lost a trillion dollars from tourism after the 80% drop of international tourists. The situation was likely to be better after Thai's government announced the plan to terminate quarantine rules for travellers from low-risk countries in the previous October. However, 2-months later, the plan was stopped leaving only ‘Phuket Sandbox’ after the new variant, Omicron, was founded in many countries across the world with the study that it has the highest transmission rate among all variants.
For more than two years, top-rated tourist cities in Thailand were harshly affected by the pandemic. The strategy to reopen the country again might be the last breath for entrepreneurs in this sector. The solution to the pandemic is to operate sustainable businesses while we are living with the coronavirus. Therefore, we proposed to develop two simulation models, agent-based modelling and system dynamics, in Phuket where they are still welcoming tourists without quarantine. The objective of the models is to assess and simulate the real-world effects by applying different scenarios in order to define and evaluate the impact of these situations in terms of transmission dynamic and economic value. The two models would be connected serving two different aspects with the use of Phuket-related data acquired from public open data and government agencies.
The outcome of the simulation will be beneficial for various stakeholders, for instance, policymakers, authorities, entrepreneurs, investors, and tourists. Other than that, this pilot project could be later applied in more provinces that have been planned to welcome tourists and bring back Thailand to be the best destination for tourism again.