What drives cargo-bike sharing intentions? A comparative study on across four European cities among non-users
Cargo-bike sharing (CBS) is emerging as a low-emission option for personal mobility and last-mile logistics, yet evidence on public acceptance and its determinants remains limited. This study examines how transport identities, willingness to pay (WTP), socio-demographic, infrastructural, and Diffusion of Innovations (DoI)–based predictors shape the intention to use CBS. We analyze data from a survey of 2,319 residents across four European cities—Budapest, Gothenburg, Karlsruhe, and Oslo. Descriptively, cyclists show the highest intention to use CBS across cities, but identity effects vary by context (for example, Karlsruhe shows no significant within-city differences, while in Oslo car drivers have lower intentions than cyclists and public transport users). In city-level regression models, the perceived ease of substituting car trips with a cargo bike consistently predicts higher intention in all four cities. Perceived compatibility and relative advantage also predict intention in three cities, with relative advantage strongest in Karlsruhe. Additional predictors vary by city: trialability matters in Budapest and Karlsruhe; perceived compatibility matters in Gothenburg and Oslo; being male (vs female) is relevant in Gothenburg; and car ownership matters in Oslo. The models explain 48.5%–58.5% of the variance in intention. Overall, CBS uptake appears driven mainly by modifiable feasibility and innovation perceptions, suggesting that locally tailored rollout strategies should emphasize practical car-trip substitution, trial opportunities, service visibility, and affordable pricing.